Lions On The Move: Progress and Potential of African Economies

Via McKinsey, a link to a detailed report on how Africa’s economic growth is creating substantial new business opportunities that are often overlooked by global companies, where  consumer-facing industries, resources, agriculture, and infrastructure together could generate as much as $2.6 trillion in revenue annually by 2020, or $1 trillion more than today:

Africa’s collective GDP, at $1.6 trillion in 2008, is now roughly equal to Brazil’s or Russia’s. While Africa’s increased economic momentum is widely recognized, less known are its sources and likely staying power. Among the key findings:

Africa’s growth acceleration was widespread, with 27 of its 30 largest economies expanding more rapidly after 2000.

All sectors contributed, including resources, finance, retail, agriculture, transportation and telecommunications. Natural resources directly accounted for just 24 percent of the continent’s GDP growth from 2000 through 2008. Key to Africa’s growth surge were improved political and macroeconomic stability and microeconomic reforms.

Future economic growth will be supported by Africa’s increasing ties to the global economy.

Rising demand for commodities is driving buyers around the world to pay dearly for Africa’s natural riches and to forge new types of partnerships with producers. And Africa is gaining greater access to international capital; total foreign capital flows into Africa rose from $15 billion in 2000 to a peak of $87 billion in 2007.

Africa’s economic growth is creating substantial new business opportunities that are often overlooked by global companies.

MGI projects that at least four groups of industries—consumer-facing industries, agriculture, resources, and infrastructure—together could generate as much as $2.6 trillion in revenue annually by 2020, or $1 trillion more than today.

Today the rate of return on foreign investment in Africa is higher than in any other developing region.

Early entry into African economies provides opportunities to create markets, establish brands, shape industry structures, influence customer preferences, and establish long-term relationships. Business can help build the Africa of the future.

The rise of the African urban consumer also will fuel long-term growth.

Today, 40 percent of Africans live in urban areas, a portion close to China’s and continuing to expand. The number of households with discretionary income is projected to rise by 50 percent over the next 10 years, reaching 128 million. By 2030, the continent’s top 18 cities could have combined spending power of $1.3 trillion.

To understand the growth opportunities and challenges of individual economies, MGI developed a framework that groups them in four broad clusters: diversified economies, oil exporters, transition economies, and pre-transition economies. Though imperfect, this framework can guide business leaders and investors developing strategies for the continent and policymakers working to sustain growth.



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Wildcats & Black Sheep is a personal interest blog dedicated to the identification and evaluation of maverick investment opportunities arising in frontier - and, what some may consider to be, “rogue” or “black sheep” - markets around the world.

Focusing primarily on The New Seven Sisters - the largely state owned petroleum companies from the emerging world that have become key players in the oil & gas industry as identified by Carola Hoyos, Chief Energy Correspondent for The Financial Times - but spanning other nascent opportunities around the globe that may hold potential in the years ahead, Wildcats & Black Sheep is a place for the adventurous to contemplate & evaluate the emerging markets of tomorrow.