India, Vietnam, and Philippines to Drive Emerging Asia Growth in 2022

Via Emerging World, a look at Fitch’s 2022 Asia Pacific forecasts:

We recently viewed the latest Asia Pacific forecast put out by Fitch. On a broad level, they see regional growth to slow, weighed down by China. In ‘21, Emerging Asia grew above 7%, but it hovers around 5.7% in the Fitch forecast for ‘22. But if you take China out of the Emerging Asia numbers, the forecast for ‘22 rises above 6% again.

Three countries are set to be stand-out growth performers, according to the Fitch forecast: India, Vietnam, and Philippines. Fitch is particularly bullish on Vietnam’s role as a manufacturing hub. “We continue to flag Vietnam as a beneficiary of shifting supply chains,” Fitch wrote, “particularly with regard to low value-add manufacturing re-locating out of China.”

As for China, Fitch sees 5.4% growth in 2022, considerably down from its 7.8% growth in ‘21, Fitch noted. They are not alone. The IMF is also forecasting a considerable drop in China’s growth for ‘22, down from its 8% figure in ‘21 to 5.6% in ‘22.

Here are Fitch’s 2022 Asia-Pacific forecasts for the top 8 countries they explored. Please note: they included Pakistan, but not Bangladesh in their forecast. Bangladesh is expected to be an Asia star performer with 6.6% growth expected to be clocked by the end of their fiscal year in June 2022, according to the IMF.

Asia-Pacific Top 8 of Selected Countries – Fitch Forecasts (compiled by Emerging World)

  1. India – 8.6%
  2. Vietnam – 7%
  3. Philippines – 6.5%
  4. Malaysia – 5.5%
  5. China – 5.4%
  6. Indonesia – 4.7%
  7. Pakistan – 3.9%
  8. Thailand – 3.7%

Of note in the above, Malaysia and Thailand are displaying the biggest jump from 2021. Thailand grew a sluggish 1.1% in 2021 and Malaysia hit 1.5%.

This entry was posted on Friday, January 14th, 2022 at 9:21 am and is filed under India, Philippines, Vietnam.  You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.  Both comments and pings are currently closed. 

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